Claude Sonnet 5 Prop Bets

MANIFOLD

151

Ṁ3.2kṀ40k

Feb 11

96%

Available in Claude Code at launch

95%

Outperforms opus 4.6 on any sde benchmark

91%

400k+ token context window

91%

Will Sonnet 5 be available on the free Claude tier at launch?

82%

50% if significantly better than Sonnet 4.5, YES if significantly better than Opus 4.5 (President's judgement)

74%

Outperforms Opus 4.5 in WebDev on LMArena

70%

1M+ token context window

64%

Will Claude Sonnet 5 debut in the LM Arena Top 3 overall within 7 days of release?

49%

"agent swarm" or other more sophisticated multi agent scheme released/announced with launch.

45%

I will feel that Sonnet 5 has the same amount of "soul" as Opus 4.5 (or more)

36%

Any image generation tool included with the release (nano banana type thing, not gif's)

26%

Released Feb 13th or earlier

19%

Will Sonnet 5 reach #1 overall on LM Arena at any point within 14 days?

10%

1.5M+ token context window

Will Sonnet 5 be #1 overall-no-style-control on LM Arena when first added to the leaderboard

Sonnet 4.x will be released, not Sonnet 5

Releases Feb 6th (PT)

All LMArena props resolve WITH style control unless otherwise stated, resolves to the next Sonnet Model, I used 5 for clarity, but any # counts

Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For image generation tools: Must be a dedicated diffusion model (like Midjourney/Stable Diffusion), not general tools like GIF creation skills.

Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on default settings with style control enabled on LMArena.

Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator may resolve the market at 10 PM ET instead of waiting until the official close date if Claude Sonnet 5 is not released within the next hour or two from the time of the comment.

Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait until the official close date to resolve the market, rather than resolving early at 10 PM ET on February 3rd.

Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will defer to @MarryBobinson's preference on how to resolve the "Releases before 3pm Feb 4th" answer (despite the typo "reseases").

Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "agent swarm or other more sophisticated multi agent scheme" answer: The market will remain open until Sonnet 5 is released to verify if it supports the agent teams feature that was announced with Opus 4.6. Will resolve YES if and when Sonnet 5 supports this feature.

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CLARIFICATION: the times are in PST for my markets, as that's where anthropic is

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bought Ṁ0 NO

@JoshSnider Resolves no.

thoughts on resolution here? This was announced today with Opus 4.6 https://code.claude.com/docs/en/agent-teams

A case could be made for either yes or no: yes bc it's released at/before, no because it was released before sonnet 5, or N/A because it's ambiguous?

@nostream tbh i feel like it was pretty clear that this applied to Sonnet. We can keep this market open until Sonnent comes out, and we can see if it supports the feature. I'm not super educated on this feture so if my interpretation is bad, feel free to correct me

@JeromeHPowell sounds fair. I will resolve yes if and when sonnet 5 supports this feature. I would expect yes but obviously better to confirm. Any objections please comment below.