Context: https://epoch.ai/data-insights/hyperscaler-capex-vs-cash-flow
Resolves yes if for a calendar quarter the combined cash capex of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle is lower than it was in the proceeding quarter. Q3 and Q4 2026 are the quarters being considered.
Since Oracle does not do calendar year reporting, their nearest fiscal quarter will be used for its contribution to the sum.
1,000Q3 2026 already looks safe from a YES. Cash capex (purchases of property and equipment) from the 10-Qs, Q2 to Q3 2026: Microsoft $35.8B to $39.4B, Alphabet $44.9B to $51.4B, Amazon $54.2B to $77.3B, Meta $30.1B to $33.9B, so those four rose $36.9B combined. Oracle's Jun-Aug quarter was $28.5B, and since its whole FY26 was $55.7B with $8.5B in the first quarter, its Mar-May quarter was at most $47.2B, so Oracle cannot offset that. For Q4: Meta's $135B to $145B 2026 guide implies $51.9B to $61.9B in Q4 after $83.1B over nine months, and Microsoft guided Oct-Dec capex (including finance leases) above $50B vs $45.2B in Jul-Sep. Source: Equibles, company 10-Qs