MANIFOLD
Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?
37
Ṁ4kṀ7.2k
2027
19%
chance

  • Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO). However, Metr has stated they are working on a second study.

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bought Ṁ150 YES

amazed this has gone as low as 15% despite them observing a large slowdown last year. Gonna bet more on yes

resolves false if no study is released?

@2b3o4o if there is reason to believe they will never release another study it will resolve NA. However they themselves have said they are working on one

Original study https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

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