Select your annual income from all sources, in USD. Either the last rolling 12 months, last financial year, or most recent data you have to hand. Don't be selective and just put your best year ever, make it honest. Convert at prevailing exchange rates.
(I did not include a "see results" option because I don't want opt-out bias affecting the results, if you're unwilling to reveal, you don't get to see.)
1,000People are also trading
(I did not include a "see results" option because I don't want opt-out bias affecting the results, if you're unwilling to reveal, you don't get to see.)
You have to remember, we're just going to lie instead if we want to see the results.
@Eliza I reckon the reluctant group splits 30/30/40. Lies, reveals, walks away.
And that fibbing 30% may well spread out over the option set.
I don't have any reason to think it would bias the results terribly.
This poll is linked to this market which will resolve based on the most popular response: https://manifold.markets/JasonMurphy/how-much-do-manifolders-earn-ph9O6h6luR
@ScottAlexander once revealed his substack earnings, he is likely to make a big splash in the deep end of the pool if he participates in this market!
I assume lots of Bay area people make even more money than him.
But are normies represented here too? And are young people and students over-represented? it's hard to say ex-ante!