https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-e51828929670?r=bWFyaW9wYXNxdWF0bw

Will a human mission successfully land on Mars before the end of 2035?

37% chance. For this to be resolved as yes, a human has to step foot on Mars before 1st jan 2036 Might check out this article: https://theweek.com/health-and-science/1022544/how-nasa-is-planning-to-get-humans-to-mars [image]

This is very strange wording for a title. “By 2035”, in common usage, would mean “before December 31, 2034,” yet you’ve chosen January 1, 2036 as the resolution date.

Maybe you ought to update it to “by the end of 2035.”

Feels a bit weird to include Jan 1st as a positive resolution, but I doubt that will affect the result so whatever.

I doubt that will affect the result

There's a market for that (now): https://manifold.markets/percentage/will-the-first-human-step-foot-on-m

Will the first human step foot on Mars on exactly January 1st 2036?

34% chance. This market resolves YES if and only if on Jan 1st, 2036 a human, for the first time, sets foot on the Martian surface. This market will resolve with the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/JamesGiammona/will-a-human-step-foot-on-mars-by-2-8cc75fd1cb55, except for the change in the date. [link preview]