Will GPT 4.5/GPT 5 have 30 more elo than #2 on the LMSYS leaderboard two weeks after it is released.

Ṁ1kṀ8.1k

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard link to leaderboard. Will measure from two weeks after it makes it on the leaderboard.

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@shankypanky i don't think this is the correct resolution -- the market seems to have agreed the answer to this was No

bought Ṁ1,499 NO

@JamesF GPT 4.5 has been released and did not have more elo than #2 on the leaderboard. This can be resolved.

I'm assuming this about GPT 4.5 right - March 2025?

or is it about GPT 5 - ~June 2025?

What if they launch GPT-4.5 and GPT-4.5 Lite?

Is this asking about a 30 elo gap between it and the next chatbot?

@Paul Yeah between the next highest ranked