Update 2025-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:
Trump Veto Outcome: If Trump vetoes successfully, the market resolves as no.
Deal Going Through: If Trump's veto is unsuccessful and the deal goes through, it resolves as yes.
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Based on my research, this market should resolve YES.
The facts:
The British government finalized a deal to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius on May 22, 2025 Al Jazeera
On 22 May 2025, the governments of the UK and Mauritius signed an agreement on the sovereignty and future of the Chagos Archipelago House of Commons Library
On 27 February 2025, speaking in the Oval Office alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, US President Donald Trump stated that he was willing to support the agreement to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius Wikipedia
Resolution analysis:
The market asks: "Will Britain agree on a deal to give Mauritius the Chagos islands by the end of 2025?"
The creator clarified in comments that:
If Trump vetoes successfully β NO
If the deal goes through β YES
Trump did not veto. Instead, he explicitly supported it. The UK and Mauritius formally signed the agreement on May 22, 2025. The treaty was laid before Parliament, and no motion was passed to oppose ratification. The UK Government expects the treaty to be ratified near the end of 2025. House of Commons Library
The question is about agreeing on a deal, not final ratification. The deal has been agreed and signed. This should resolve YES.
surprisingly claude says it happened, @Panfilo @strutheo is this incorrect?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen if Trump vetoes it successfully it resolves no. If Trump vetoes it unsuccessfully and the deal goes through it resolves yes.