When will Apple release its “HomePod with a screen” device?
When will Apple release its “HomePod with a screen” device?
6
200Ṁ71
2026
3%
March 2025
3%
April 2025
3%
May 2025
5%
June 2025
26%
September 2025
18%
October 2025
17%
November 2025
16%
December 2025
10%
Other

Background

Apple is developing a new smart home device, codenamed J490, that combines HomePod audio capabilities with a 6-7 inch display interface. The device is expected to feature an A18 chipset (similar to iPhone 16), support the full Apple Intelligence feature set, and serve as a home hub for HomeKit and Matter integration.

Resolution Criteria

The market will resolve based on Apple's official announcement or release of a Home device with an integrated display screen. The resolution date will be determined by:

  • For pre-orders: The date when Apple officially begins accepting pre-orders

  • For immediate availability: The date when the device becomes available for purchase

  • For announcement only: The date will NOT be based merely on Apple's announcement if no specific release date is provided

The market will resolve N/A if:

  • Apple cancels or indefinitely postpones the project

  • Apple releases a fundamentally different product that doesn't match the core concept of a HomePod with integrated display

  • No release occurs by December 31, 2025

Considerations

  • Recent reports from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggest the release timeline has been pushed back from early 2025 to Q3 2025

  • Production estimates indicate Apple plans to manufacture between 500,000 and 1 million units in the latter half of 2025

  • Apple is also reportedly developing a higher-end version with a robotic arm-mounted screen, which should not be confused with this product for market resolution purposes

  • Apple has not officially confirmed the existence of this product, so all current information is based on analyst reports and industry sources

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
bought Ṁ2 YES2mo

An argument for June is WWDC

If the software is meaningfully different from iPadOS (which it should be if it's a brand new product) they will want to tell developers about it

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules