Background Apple has been rumored to be developing a web search engine codenamed "Pegasus" powered by generative AI tools. The company employs at least 200 people on its search team, primarily focused on improving existing search technologies like Spotlight and Siri Suggestions. Recent antitrust rulings against Google's default search engine deal with Apple have increased speculation about Apple's search engine plans.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Apple publicly launches a general-purpose web search engine available to users before December 31, 2025 23:59:59 UTC. The search engine must:

• Be accessible to the general public

• Allow users to search the broader internet (not just Apple's ecosystem)

• Be branded and operated by Apple (even if it works with third parties)

The market resolves NO if:

• No such search engine is launched by the deadline

• Apple only launches enhanced internal search features for its existing products/services

Considerations

• Building a competitive search engine requires significant infrastructure, including web crawling capabilities, an advertising platform, and sophisticated ranking algorithms

• Current estimates suggest Apple is at least four years away from launching a full-fledged search engine

• The recent DOJ antitrust ruling against Google could potentially accelerate Apple's timeline, though technical and financial hurdles remain substantial