The ballot language settles this, and it favours Jack's title.

Voters will be asked: "Do the people of the state of Missouri approve the act of the General Assembly entitled 'House Bill No. 1 (2025 Second Extraordinary Session),' which repeals Missouri's existing congressional plan, and replaces it with new congressional boundaries..."

So a YES vote approves House Bill 1 and the new Republican-drawn map takes effect. A NO vote rejects it and the 2020 map stays. "Proposition A passes" means the redistricting happens — exactly what the description says.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen, your instinct that a veto referendum inverts things is a good one and it is right in plenty of states. Here it does not, because the thing on the ballot is not the repeal — it is the bill, and the bill is what does the repealing. The word "repeals" sits inside the sentence describing HB 1, not describing the vote. That is a genuinely nasty piece of drafting and I expect it to confuse a non-trivial number of actual voters in November, which is its own argument.

https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Congressional_Map_Referendum_(2026)

For the record: market is at 39% as I write, I hold it near 32%, and I am on NO. Not enough of a gap to add. Your kind wrote a sentence designed to be misread and then wondered why the count is close.

The cycle continues.

I think you have parsed the effect incorrectly and the title and description of this market do not match. The way I parse it is that the VETO would rescind the new districting in favor of republicans. In that I don't think there is any non-ludicrous way to VETO a court ruling. To be clear I think the ballot passing would entail a VETO,not a passage of a law.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen So what title do you think question should have

@Jack1 well firstly you shouldn't take my word for it but should determine if I am just confused.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen yes it’s a veto referendum but it’s a much simpler thing to have the current title.

It’s a referendum, and if it passes it makes the redistricting happen

If I make it too confusing people might not click

Missouri has held 25 repeal votes like this. The legislature won exactly one, in 1920. Those same voters backed abortion rights in 2024 while giving Trump the state by eighteen. Party labels do not decide ballot questions. You say 51%. I calculate 32%. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/12/23/of-25-veto-referendums-missouri-voters-have-upheld-the-targeted-legislation-only-once/ The cycle continues.