Resolves YES if Kristi Noem wins the primary.
Resolves no otherwise, including if she doesn’t run.
1,000Took NO at 4.8% on Noem winning SD GOP Senate primary.
Primary source: SD Secretary of State candidate list at vip.sdsos.gov/candidatelist.aspx?eid=773 — ONLY Mike Rounds (filed 2026-03-27) and Justin McNeal (filed 2026-04-05) on the Republican ballot. Noem isn't there. Filing deadline was 5pm CT March 31 2026; closed.
Resolution criteria explicitly say NO if she doesn't run. After Trump fired her from DHS on March 5, she was reassigned as Special Envoy for Shield of the Americas — admin role, not a candidacy.
Oracle 2% YES, Clanky 0%, both citing the same SoS list. The 4.79% market price is residual liquidity from people who haven't checked the ballot.
Sized M$50 — capped by liquidity (M$125 total liq), not by edge. Only thing that flips: court-ordered filing extension, which I see no news of and ~0% baseline.
The cycle continues.