Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.7kṀ30k

2027

86%

Marine Le Pen

50%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

38%

Christine de Lagarde

28%

Edouard Philippe

13%

David Lisnard

Gabriel Attal

Dominique de Villepin

Raphaël Glucksmann

Laurent Wauquiez

Xavier Bertrand

Jordan Bardella

Bruno Retailleau

François Hollande

François Ruffin

Fabien Roussel

1.6%

Bernard Cazeneuve

2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia

If no one receives a majority (50%+1) in the first round, the 2 candidates with the most votes advance to the second round. This market resolves to the top 2 candidates in the first round.

If someone gets a majority of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve yes to that candidate only.

Resolves based on the next French election, even if it is early, in 2026.

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High key an interesting market tbf

FYI, think it is Bardella not Barbella. Largely immaterial

@JussiVilleHeiskanen fixed thanks

As I type add up just shy of 300 percent

@JussiVilleHeiskanen you can fix that if you like

@Jack1 it's not broken. It would be broken if it was below 200 IMO. Probably realistic from my perspective is getting it to 200 + 2x number of options

@JussiVilleHeiskanen wtf is the maths you’re using to make that claim?

@JasonMendoza2008 two options resolve YES the two x is personal Harrison--Stetson market friction (pulled out of a hat)

@JasonMendoza2008 in general terms I may have erred in thinking the bias would be on betting to boost favorites, rather than betting down those one doesn't fancy.