MANIFOLD
Who will be the next Secretary of Homeland Security?
42
Ṁ1.2kṀ21k
2029
97%
Markwayne Mullin

Resolves yes to the next secretary of homeland security.

Resolves OTHER if no one is confirmed, as KRISTI noem has left the role

  • Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolves based on who is confirmed by the Senate as Secretary of Homeland Security, or appointed by recess appointment.

  • Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no one is confirmed by 20 Jan 2029, the market resolves to Other. The market will continue past the end of the Trump administration (if applicable) until Jan 2029, covering any new administration's confirmations as well.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Trump's Second Term
2024 US Presidential Election
Trump Cabinet
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@traders

bought Ṁ10 YES

Resolves to Other if no one is confirmed by the end of the Trump administration, and Noem has vacated the position, correct? Or does it resolve to whomever is next confirmed under the next administration?

@bens I think given the close date, the former seems most reasonable?

@bens it will resolve to other if no one is confirmed by 20 Jan 2029. If Trump admin ends this market will continue for the new administration until Jan 2029

@Jack1 kristi noem has left the role so can't resolve to her

@Jack1 has she actually, formally? I thought that was end of March?

@bens not formally yet

bought Ṁ50 NO

Markwayne should NOT be confirmed. I stand with Rand

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Gabrielle He hasn't been approved by the Senate yet, let's see how this actually goes

This will resolve on who is confirmed by the senate, or appointed via recess appointment

bought Ṁ50 YES

Kristi Noem very likely to go now, who’ll replace her?

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 8% order

If you want an option added, please comment below.

@Jack1 Stephen Miller

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