https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
on election day 2026 after the polls are closed, I will check Nate Silvers election poll model to resolve this market. If the Democratic candidate in the race is leading, their answer will resolve yes. If they are losing, resolves no.
If the Democratic candidate is tied, resolves no.
Resolves according to the Democratic candidate. If one is replaced, resolves according to the new one. The names are as a guide only, except Dan Osborn, where he is the intended name and won’t be replaced.
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@Jack1 nate i think adjusts every poll for house bias before putting it in the average, but he has also historically had a chronic problem with accepting polls from every shitty right wing pollster known to man