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MANIFOLD
US Midterms MEGA Market
143
Ṁ9.4kṀ73k
Nov 6
6%
Abdul el Sayed wins by 7.5% or more
8%
Mississippi senate is called before 11.59pm eastern Nov 4. (Associated press)
84%
Mississippi senate is called before Alaska senate? (Associated press)
53%
La Mayor election called by Ap or NBC by 11.59pm pacific time Nov 4?
94%
Mississippi is closest senate race (by margin of victory)
87%
Donald trump POSTS 10 times on truth social on Wednesday Nov 4, eastern time. Posts only, retruths don’t count.
4%
Mary Peltola wins by more than Troy Jackson (resolves on final round results)
95%
Ca Wealth tax (prop 40) fails by 5% or more
35%
Mary Peltola gets 50% or more in first round of Alaska senate
8%
Alaska senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Wed Nov 4
94%
Democrats win 56 senate seats or more (ap projections)
8%
Adam Hamilton (Kansas) wins by more than Abdul el sayed
98.9%
Democrats win 55 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)
1.1%
Abdul El Sayed wins by more than Peggy Flanagan does in Minnesota?
17%
Mike rogers claims the Michigan election was stolen/rigged/cheated/inconsistent before 11.59pm Thursday Nov 5
99.1%
Democrats win Kansas and Texas governor
95%
Mary Peltola AND James Talarico win
4%
Abdul El Sayed wins by 8% or more
98.6%
Abdul el Sayed wins by 1.5% or more
23%
A tweet from @ Jamestalarico gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours

Check out:

Resolves according to major media reporting and race calls(such as associated press). If needed, wait for official results.

Clarifications:

  • Any senate election has margin of victory of 0.5% or less. Resolves on deciding round if ranked choice/runoff

  • Any senate candidate wins with 47% or less of the vote. Resolves based on deciding round result if runoff/ranked

  • Any senate race NOT called by the associated press 2 days after polls closed? Resolves based on poll closing time in the state, by the latest poll closing time

  • Any Republican held senate seat is called by the associated press within 2 minutes of polls closing in the state. Resolves based on final poll closing

  • Abdul El Sayed wins by more than Peggy Flanagan does in Minnesota? (If one/both lose, resolves if Abdul performs better than Peggy)

A Tweet from @AbdulElSayed/ @jamestalarico gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours. (Must be posted before end of a Nov 8 eastern time. Must be from that specific account. Must be posted after polls close on election day in their state. Includes Quote Tweets they post.

House/senate totals resolve on news media projections, like AP/NBC, and party changes will not change the result. Eg. If Dems win 53 senate seats in the election, and Fetterman switches leaving them with 52 seats, it counts as them winning 53 for this market.

  • Update 2026-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer regarding Republican senate candidates claiming the election was stolen, "the election" refers to their own election.

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2026 Midterms
2026 US Election
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bought Ṁ20 NO

@Jack1 @DottedCalculator what state?

sold Ṁ3 NO

@Jack1 Wyoming

bought Ṁ2,668 YES

@Jack1 NBC called house ~30m ago, I assume you mean ET

@Dssc yes, thx

/Jack1/abdul-el-sayed-margin-of-victory

Massive liquidity market

Updated the Twitter one to make sure it includes quote tweets. Sent some mana to the No holders in case there was confusion.

@Jack1 By "the election," do you mean the election in which they participated? (For example, Darline Graham claiming the South Carolina Senate race was stolen.) Or would declaring any midterm race stolen qualify? (Example: Roger Marshall claims the Alaska Senate race was stolen.)

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Kraalnaxx their own election only

I’ll be adding more answers soon

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