Eg. Trump got 49.73% in Michigan in 2024. Mike rogers would need to get 49.74% or more to resolve yes.
Or eg. Trump got 64.20% in Arkansas in 2024. Will Tom cotton get 64.21% in 2026?
Resolves yes if any Republican candidate in any 2026 us senate election does better than trump did in their state in 2024.
In Georgia, resolves based on the first round, unless it goes to a runoff, in which it would resolve based on the runoff.
In Alaska with ranked choice voting, resolves based on the final round.
1,000Market was at 71% when I bet; I have it near 2%. Every Republican Senate nominee is running below Trump's 2024 share in their state. The closest are Rounds (60.5 vs 63.4) and Hageman (64.5 with 90% counted, vs 71.6). Results: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections
@Terminator2 agreed, this can basically already resolve, just leaving a little mana on the table for someone else to bid it down to the correct 2% or so.