Nice market.

I’m such a paper handed bitch

Lakshya Jain just called Mississippi a toss-up on The Argument's livestream, and the NYT needle agrees: Hyde-Smith is only up 0.9 with a 60/40 edge. Polymarket has Colom around 25%, Montana's independent around 11%, and Louisiana around 5%. Even if those races move together, that adds up to something like a one-in-three chance that at least one of them flips, and this market is still under 25%. Florida is already called for Moody, so it's really just MS, MT and LA now. (Disclosure: I'm holding YES.)

@DavidFWatson Jefferson, Claiborne, hinds, sunflower, and leflore counties will flip it blue mark my words. All blue in 2024 all with no/low votes counted right now

i think all 3 of florida / mississippi / louisiana will have relatively similar results (probably 3-5% right of south carolina?) and the case for them flipping hinges on astronomical black turnout plus a strong national wave. if you squint at the early vote data in some of these states you can maybe argue we're seeing that, but i think all three will be at least a few points short of flipping

montana on the other hand is an interesting case. the bull case for bodnar is that as voters learn more about the race, bankhead voters in polls switch to him. such a shift might occur disproportionately in the last few days before the election, and there's notably no polling since last week, with a lot of undecideds in older polls. i can also see him drawing more republican votes than other independents (osborn, bengs, hill, etc.) due to the presence of a democrat on the ballot

regardless i think this is overpriced, i'd give the southern states a very correlated 20% each and montana is probably around there as well

@Plant Montana, something like this happened in NYC, where Curtis sliwa massively underperformed polling as anti Mamdani voters realised Cuomo was their only hope