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The anti-trans comments aren't welcome here. They aren't being excellent or helping build a good community.

If you wanted to resolve to PROB, that should have been clearer from the start. As is, you asked about "coming out", not something like "do you decide he is". Resolving NO.

@EvanDaniel If it had been a probability question, I would not have asked it the way I have. You robbed me of my intent. If it is probable that Matt is having some sort of intimate relationship with a man, would the resolution lean more toward a Yes or more toward a No? Is it more likely there is fire when we see and smell smoke from a place nearby or is it more likely there is no fire? Let me put it another way, is therea 3 percent chance that you are a human being rather than a bot?Your lack of intelectual honesty is both appalling and disappointing to me, But ok, you are the mod, and I have no choice but to agree with your decision. 🫡🫡

@IsaiahhSRAU I'm the mod, but you're absolutely not required to agree with me. You're just required to do your disagreeing in ways that are respectful of the broader community, including but not limited to me. This entire site is built around helping people have productive disagreements, after all.

You'll get a lot more support from me if you try hard to make your questions more factual, and less about your opinions, or to make them clearly indicated when they're solely about your opinions.

"Is this celebrity dating a trans person?" might be a much more reasonable question to ask, if that's a thing you'd like to know. You'd still be expected to follow community guidelines, be respectful of other traders and third parties, not encourage doxxing, and so on, but I suspect there are instances of that question that are fine. But I assume you didn't write that question because you already knew the answer, and were trying to sneak an opinion in by not telling us your definition that you already had in mind. And that's not acting in good faith as a market creator, regardless of the topic.

If you're actively striving to be excellent to other traders, and make good markets that resolve in clear, well-defined, and predictable ways, you'll probably be fine.

Anyway, I'll let @shankypanky handle things from here, I think I've said most of what I think is important on the topic.

@EvanDaniel Of course I know the answer as does the rest of the world who is familiar with Dillahunti. This was never about me.

@IsaiahhSRAU most people do not view the world like you do, contrary to what you seem to believe.

resolves no? @mods

@strutheo mods win at any cost, eh? Or only when there are enough peanut gallery commentators?

@IsaiahhSRAU the percent doesnt make sense?

unresolved. @IsaiahhSRAU resolving to 3% doesn't follow from anything in the question description or comments below. creators have wide leeway to resolve markets, so if you can properly justify 3%, it will likely stand. but you can't just resolve to something random with no explanation.

if creator does not provide justification or re-resolve themselves, this will re-resolve to 0% at some point (you can ping me after a few days if there have been no updates)

@Ziddletwix his "girlfriend* Arden is a biological man. Good enough for 3%, even though he is still "in the closet* when it comes to coming out and admitting he is a flaming homosexual.

@mods I feel like these blatantly transphobic comments count as "hateful, discriminatory content", no?

@IsaiahhSRAU Even if you keep it purely to biology, trans people on HRT are not "biologically male". Chromosomes, gametes and the like are not the entirety of biology.

@SimonWestlake I want the best possible outcome for Matt in this or the next life. I love all people, men and women both regardless of their sexual choices. And I am certainly not afraid of people who think they are men or women whose biological sex is the opposite of their imagined sex.

@mods I have no idea why this resolved 3%, I believe it should be re-resolved to NO

Why did this resolve at 3% lol

FYI: the creator of this question appears to be tendentious and wants to rip you off, currently by finding vague and nonsensical reasons to resolve this as YES, as it appears from the conversation with Collin Matthews below. In addition, the question creator has only 198 mana, which is further motivation for this kind of scam. I strongly advise against betting on this question.

How does this resolve if he comes out as bi?

@CollinMatthews How does a man, which Matt allegedly is, possibly having sex with another man who suffers from delusions of being a woman, resolve?

I'd have a lot more respect for him if he came out of the closet and admitted it instead of selling his smug, indignant, rude, dismissive, quasi intellectual, self contradictory kool aid....

@IsaiahhSRAU what is this reply lmao not only did you not answer the question but somehow trans people are relevant??? lmao

@copiumarc There are no "trans" people. There are men and women.

@IsaiahhSRAU I picked up that you asked this question because you're transphobic, but it still has to resolve, so I want to know what happens if he comes out as bisexual so I can accurately trade

@copiumarc I think the "context" is that Matt is dating a trans woman and some people are convinced that makes him gay for some reason

@CollinMatthews I have no idea what gave you the impression that I am afraid of people who are one sex but pretend to be the opposite. I love both men (Matt included) and women equally, in a brotherly and friendly kind of way. I feel sad about those who are confused about their sex.

I am simply interested to see Matt be authentic, perhaps for the first time in his 56 year old life, about who he really is - and if he is a homosexual, then so be it. Just come right out and admit it.

I bet you he gets 10x subscribers if he becomes more authentic than continues to lie about who he really is when 'no one' is watching.

@IsaiahhSRAU Asking for the third time, how does this question resolve if he comes out as bisexual?

@CollinMatthews It seems you're being obtuse on purpose with that question. Am I wrong?

@IsaiahhSRAU Yeah

@CollinMatthews Gotcha. Sorry I cannot be clearer for you, Collin

@IsaiahhSRAU

I bet you he gets 10x subscribers if he becomes more authentic than continues to lie about who he really is when 'no one' is watching.

Let's bet. If he comes out as homosexual for the purpose of his market, does he get 10x the subscribers within a year? how much are you willing to wager?

@Bayesian trying a wager like this against somebody with 50 balance is crazy lol

happy to do real $

You all inveterate gamblers here 😂... Let's see if this one pans out. I just have a feeeling he's warming up to coming out of the closet.. I didn't pay attention to my balance. What's a 'nice' balance that is respectable here?

@IsaiahhSRAU sir this is a prediction market if you say you wanna bet on something you are expected to bet on that thing 😁

@Bayesian can I take this bet on the "he won't 10x his subs" side

@copiumarc I can buy both sides but i need high margin so i can't give you a good price if that's what you mean. if you mean you wanna bet against isaiahh too then yeah that's up to him

@Bayesian what would your offer be

@copiumarc i'll buy No at 50% and Yes at 1%

hmm 1% feels high acc

bro idk doesn't seem worthwhile 😭

@Bayesian down to do 30k mana : 300 it most likely n/as though