When will TSMC's first Arizona fab open?
When will TSMC's first Arizona fab open?
10
390Ṁ14702027
65%
2025H1 or earlier
23%
2025H2
4%
2026H1
4%
2026H2
4%
2027 or later
TSMC's first fab in Arizona (with an N4 process) was previously scheduled to open in 2024 (https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977) but then was delayed to 2025 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-20/tsmc-to-delay-us-fab-production-until-2025-over-worker-shortages). I expect there will be an opening ceremony, like there was for the recently opened new fab in Japan (https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3113) and I will resolve this question at that date. Otherwise, I will resolve the question when there are news reports of production beginning at the fab.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES11mo
"TSMC Arizona's first fab is on track to begin production leveraging 4 nm technology in first half of 2025" (2024-04-08).
https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?
27% chance
Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?
61% chance
Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029
4% chance
Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?
45% chance
Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻
82% chance
Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?
11% chance