MANIFOLD
Will I make it to the end of 2025 without breaking my glasses?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ246
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

Recently got glasses. I have a tendency to break stuff.

Scratches don't count, they have to actually be broken. Losing them permanently also counts.

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@IsaacKing i gotta know outcome here

@IsaacKing how are the glasses?

@MRME Surviving thus far!

Is this your first pair?

@AlexBokov Yes

bought Ṁ10 YES

How often do you break your glasses?

@zsig By Laplace's law of succession, about 1/29 times per year.

@IsaacKing deets?

@AlexBokov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession

@IsaacKing What is the reference class you are using?

@AlexBokov That was a joke, the base rate should obviously change when I go from "having no glasses" to "having glasses".

bought Ṁ5 NO

I just broke my glasses of 7 years, weakly updating in the direction of 2025 just being a cursed year for glasses

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