Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous? | Manifold

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

26

1kṀ1077

2039

48%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Self-Driving Vehicles

Anthis Big Questions

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

Will electric vehicles make up more than 25% of new US car sales by the end of 2025?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

Will at least 75% of households in the United States own a car in 2035?

Will 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

What percent of US trucking will be fully autonomous by 2030?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ30 YES

Fully automated but possible to drive manually, right?

@RemNi Could be, but they don't have to be.

What level of full autonomy? L5? I consider L5 in particular extremely unlikely. I can see L3 or maaaaybe L4 happening regionally, outside the snowbelt.

I'd say 85% L2, 45% L3, 20-25% L4, 5% L5. Waiting to bet until clarification.

@MrMayhem I assume @JacyAnthis means L5, unless they're secretly Elon Musk.

This is based on a Metaculus question, which specifies L4.

People are also trading

Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

Will electric vehicles make up more than 25% of new US car sales by the end of 2025?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

Will at least 75% of households in the United States own a car in 2035?

Will 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

What percent of US trucking will be fully autonomous by 2030?

Related questions

Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

Will electric vehicles make up more than 25% of new US car sales by the end of 2025?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

Will at least 75% of households in the United States own a car in 2035?

Will 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

What percent of US trucking will be fully autonomous by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy