Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will anyone other than Jeanne Calment reach 120 years of age before 2030?
13
Ṁ190Ṁ627
2030
13%
chance

Market context
Longevity
Life Extension
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

As I type, there are three people known to be living who could do it, with each having more than 3 years to survive. Ethel Caterham chief amongst them having 3 years and a couple of weeks. It is doable. Just. Jeanne Calment was the oldest for 9 years.

bought Ṁ20 YES

@JussiVilleHeiskanen reduced my exposure. Probably room to bet NO a bit.

People are also trading

Will anyone beat Jeanne Calment's record of 122 years, 164 days by the beginning of 2040?
47% chance
Will Jeanne Calment's longevity record be broken one day before 2040?
67% chance
Will we see someone live to 120 years old by 2030?
21% chance
At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?
91% chance
Will anyone reach 125 years of age before 2035?
6% chance
Will the oldest person alive in 2030 be at least 120 years old?
20% chance
Will anyone be at least 130 years old by 2072?
43% chance
Will anyone be at least 140 years old by 2072?
31% chance
When will we have another 120 years old person alive?
When will somebody reach the age of 120 again?