Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

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2100

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Nectome claims they have invented a groundbreaking preservation method:

We preserve the whole body, including the brain, at nanoscale, subsynaptic detail. We are capable of preserving every neuron and every synapse in the brain, and almost every protein, lipid, and nucleic acid within each cell and throughout the entire body is held in place by molecular crosslinks.
[...]
Unlike previous cryonics methods that required extremely low-temperature liquid nitrogen coolant, our method is stable for months at room temperature
[...]
we do have the evidence to say that we preserve all the information that would be needed for revival.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead

This market resolves according to the first ten (or all, if <10) people preserved via their current protocol and who did not experience significant damage while in stasis. If they're all revived without significant neurological changes in personality or memories, this resolves YES. (If the number is 0, this resolves N/A.)

If science reaches the point where we can be at least 90% confident any of them are unrevivable to these standards, this resolves NO.

Market context

Cryonics

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I think the requirements here for 10/10 revival is too strict. I can easily imagine scenarios where the preservation process works perfectly, but the first few patients die during the experimental revival research, or get revived wrong because it turns out we need more data about the person's personality from digital archives, or if one patient's special disease ruins the corpse after death for some biological reason.

I think a better market condition would be something that reflects "If I get cryopreserved tomorrow, what is the chance I'll be successfully revived within the next 1000 years"? (with details deciding what counts between cloning, mind uploading, personality changes, etc)

Hmm, apparently the author of this LessWrong post also works for that company that recently falsely claimed to have uploaded a fly and gotten fly-like behavior in simulation. So that downweights my trust a bit.

I was suspicious of the fly thing but I haven't seen a decisive debunking yet, do you have a link?

What exactly is her connection?

@adele Aurelia (the author) has responded to this on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead#8JYwJb8wRgiKFXLYE

If science reaches the point where we can be at least 90% confident any of them are unrevivable to these standards, this resolves NO.

Isn't that like the current point in science? There's IMHO a lot of evidence you are unlikely to ever reverse death (even under the ideal circumstances they assume) and those crosslinks seem quite difficult to reverse (which is almost unavoidable if they should also be stable).