Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?
Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?
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@IsaacKing Almost all of these experiments, and the commercial ventures (e.g., turn $100 into $1,000), seem to bank on the catchiness of the idea rather than particularly useful output coming from the model. The advice is just too generic, e.g.,

I would think there are already many such accounts. Anyone with a bot that generates you Stable Diffusion images would count and likely get a lot of followers. Or the "thread reader" bot(I don't know if that's an "AI", but it's a computer program). Or the "dril_gpt2" account made in 2019, I remember the creator filtered dozens of GPT responses for each actual one, but the outputs were generated by a variant of GPT-2 finetuned on dril's tweets.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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