Luigi Mangione Pre-Trial Prop Bets (Add Answers)
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Plus
57
Ṁ8258
2025
93%
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
90%
Luigi Mangione pleads "not guilty" when first arraigned on the New York indictment against him
74%
Donald Trump talks about the case
71%
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
68%
Polling from established firm shows more people have a positive than negative view of Mangione
64%
Defense requests change in venue
59%
Major media outlet releases exclusive interview with Mangione family
58%
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
58%
Mangione extradited to NY in 2024
53%
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
53%
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
47%
Luigi gets a marriage proposal
42%
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
31%
The grand jury does not return an indictment the first time the cases presented to them
28%
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
25%
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
22%
Suspect makes a confession
18%
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
13%
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
13%
Mangione attempts suicide

This refers to Luigi Mangione’s New York murder trial. I will resolve these as they occur. Unless otherwise noted, all others will be resolved upon completion of the trial.

If/when trial date becomes more clear, I will open another market for events specifically occurring during the trial.

Please add options and I will do my best to ensure they are clear and not duplicative.

Each proposition will resolve independently based on publicly verifiable information from reputable news sources or official court documents before the start of the trial. Specific resolution criteria:

  • Trump comments: Must be direct statements about the Mangione case from Donald Trump on social media, in speeches, or to media outlets

  • Self-representation: Requires Mangione to represent himself in ALL pre-trial hearings after formally declining legal representation

  • Venue change: Must be officially granted by the court, not just requested

  • Media interview: Must be an exclusive interview with immediate family members (parents, siblings) published by a major national news outlet

  • Reference arrests: Must be documented arrests where the suspect/criminal explicitly cites Mangione or this case as inspiration/motivation

  • Plea deal: Must be a formally accepted plea agreement before trial begins

  • Public statement: Direct statements from Mangione himself through any medium, excluding court testimony or documents filed with the court

  • Nancy Grace: Must explicitly call for conviction through her show or social media

  • Congressional support: Must be clear, direct statements of support from sitting members of Congress

  • Confession: Must be a formal confession to law enforcement or the court, beyond the existing handwritten document

  • Evidence allegations: Must be formal allegations filed in court documents by the defense

  • Additional charges: Must be formal criminal charges filed in direct connection with Thompson's murder

Markets resolve N/A if the trial begins or the case is settled before the specified event occurs.

  • Update 2024-11-12 (PST): Markets will resolve N/A if the specified event has not occurred before the start of opening arguments at trial. (AI summary of creator comment)

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@GG It's weird that Mangione would shoot a 3D printed Glock frame when he had a clean background. It can be a fun project, and it's definitely better than nothing if you can't access a real frame. But a 3D printed Glock frame will never be as reliable as an injection molded one, and it's quite a bit more hassle to acquire.
So why would Mangione 3D print instead of buying a Glock? Probably because he thought it would make him harder to catch. But there's also a good chunk of probability where Mangione can't purchase a Glock because he fails a NICS check. Mangione didn't appear to have any criminal history, so the only way he's failing that check is if he's been involuntarily committed. And it's not hard to be involuntarily committed, just tell a nurse you have a plan to kill yourself.
So while I don't think it's the largest probability region, I do think there's a decent-size probability island where Mangione was involuntarily committed.

@traders Here's a related market (predicting what will happen during the trial)

If you approve of Mangione's actions then, in the world where you are Spider Man, Uncle Ben is dead and it's your fault.

[Right-wing support for him] - [left-wing support for him] < 3 percentage points

Start of the trial meaning indictment? Discovery? Jury selection?

@GG The beginning of opening arguments. But these will be resolved at trial conclusion. E.g. if opening arguments begin, but the next day polling comes out indicating favorable ratings for Mangione, that would resolve “Yes”.

If/when trial date becomes clear, I will create another market for events specifically occurring during the trial.

Is this question about the New York trial, the Pennsylvania trial or both?

@AlexKobold NY murder trial

bought Ṁ50 YES

Mangione appeared with lawyer today. Representing himself at all hearings resolves no

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