MANIFOLD
Will the International Seabed Authority issue a deep sea mining (exploitation) license before 2026?
8
Ṁ130Ṁ492
resolved Jan 27
Resolved
NO

The International Seabed Authority has issued "more than 30 exploration licenses, but no exploitation [licenses]." This market will resolve to yes if The International Seabed Authority issues an exploitation license before January 1st 2026, and it will resolve to no if The International Seabed Authority does not issue any exploitation licenses before January 1st 2026.

I probably won't be active here during 2026, so mods have full permission to resolve for me, and this market probably will not resolve unless a mod does so. The market is set to close on January 1st 2026.

Context:

The Metals Company has said it plans to apply for a deep-sea mining license in mid-2024.

Market context
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"I probably won't be active here during 2026, so mods have full permission to resolve for me, and this market probably will not resolve unless a mod does so." Hi @mods - this market won't get resolved by the market creator, and should resolve as NO. The ISA didn't issue a mining license in 2025, because they haven't even finished the rules for such licenses.

The ISA has not yet issued an exploitation license. They would first need to finalise the Mining Code, which appears to be going slowly.

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