Trump plus Harris steady at 97.97% for a week or so now

Called it

Have the numbers changed in the last week or two? Is there normally an edit in December even though counting is over in all districts? Translation: with the number almost exactly 2%, is this market becoming a coin toss market, or is there inside info I am clueless about. Current status is under 2%.

this market resolves to two different things…uselectionatlas.org and polymarket (which says it reconciles to the same)…which takes priority, in case polymarket acts differently?

@PGeyer It will resolve to the resolution source, but since Polymarket is using the same resolution criteria, they will also resolve the same. Both are true.

@HillaryClinton Thank you. No rounding, right? 1.9999998% is a No, correct?

@PGeyer I would also add: per the description, 2.00% also resolves NO.

@NicoDelon 2.0000000001% resolves yes.

@HillaryClinton of course

>"Any Vote that isn't for Harris or Trump is counted."
Does that mean spoilt ballots count?

@ChristopherRandles any vote that is in the resolution source counts. No, blank votes do not count. Write ins do however.

@HillaryClinton Thanks for the answer. It would seem that you are saying a blank vote is not a vote whereas a write in is a valid vote even if the person named does not want to be president. (That is what I expected for those possibilities.)

Less clear to me was "None of these candidates" or writing in anything else that is not a name. Are these votes? The alternative being treated as invalid and not a vote? The resolution source lists 'None of these candidates' as 19625 so I that it these are counted as votes. I don't see a category listed for invalid so I presume the resolution source is excluding the write in of something other than a name as invalid and not votes and that so will this market.

1.966% at this moment, and priced at over 80% probability by the money

FYI folks Polymarket has this well over 50% currently

@JamesBaker3 It’ll be close but just under—I may be wrong!

"once finalized" means the resolution will be pushed out until states certify their results, right?

@JamesBaker3 Yes, once the states certify their final vote. Around mid december.

@HillaryClinton polymarket is using Dec 17th, though it's not clear what fraction of write-ins (from county-level sources in some states) will have been incorporated by Dave Leip on that date.

@JamesBaker3 I will resolve them the same way. The purpose of this market is to see what the price would be without whale manipulation.