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MANIFOLD
Will a multi-agent AI system publicly outperform a solo frontier model on a live benchmark before July 2026?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ80
Jul 1
78%
chance

Resolves YES if before July 1 2026 a documented result shows a multi-agent system (2+ collaborating agents) beating the best single model (GPT-4o, Claude, Gemini) on any recognized benchmark (MMLU, HumanEval, SWE-bench, GPQA). Must be published � paper, blog, or leaderboard. Not just a demo.

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