MANIFOLD
Will we discover proof of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2024?
20
Ṁ1kṀ7.7k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Market context
Technology
Science
Aliens
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ47
2Ṁ44
3Ṁ16
4Ṁ14
5Ṁ12

People are also trading

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?
6% chance
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?
77% chance
Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?
12% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?
30% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2027?
6% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?
8% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?
15% chance
“Will we discover definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2030
16% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2032?
15% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?
10% chance
Sort by:

@mods Creator inactive, resolves NO.

bought Ṁ1,259 NO

Resolves NO.

What kind of extraterrestrial life are we talking about here? Would microorganisms be sufficient?

And what level of proof are we after? We could pick up molecular composition that is chemically highly unlikely in the absence of life in distant planetary atmospheres, for example?

@JonWharf Yes, microorganisms would be sufficient - and probably the most likely.

predictedNO

@JonWharf And I’m going to go with mainstream scientific consensus that it is proof of life, I will defer to the experts. No fringe theories though.

People are also trading

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?
6% chance
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?
77% chance
Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?
12% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?
30% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2027?
6% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?
8% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?
15% chance
“Will we discover definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2030
16% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2032?
15% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?
10% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy