WW3 before major AI disaster?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ532030
56%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I have not formulated criteria yet. I welcome people to propose reasonable definitions/triggers/thresholds such that disaster is comparable to theoretical ww3 in disruprion/harm scales.
Description is up to change. I will make a disclaimer when the description crystallises.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)
45% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
22% chance
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
28% chance
Will we get AGI before WW3?
47% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
6% chance
Will there be an AI war before 2100?
42% chance
Will AI start a war before 2040
23% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2029?
12% chance
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
40% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
24% chance