MANIFOLD
OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)
9
Ṁ1kṀ962
2032
25%
chance

OpenAI fails financially before Dec 31 2032.

Settlement criteria: if one or more of the following happens before the deadline, the claim resolves to YES.

(1) Acquisition for severe discount.

OpenAI is purchased by another firm for a valuation that is less than half of its 2025 valuation (US$500 billion 2025 dollars.) (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/openai-share-sale-500-billion-valuation.html) Purchase price will be inflation adjusted to compare with the 2025 valuation.

(2) OpenAI cannot pay its bills and fails to provide services.

OpenAI becomes like pets.com in the early 2000s.

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