Does O3 use the same base model as O1? (Conditional on any OpenAI confirmation)
Does O3 use the same base model as O1? (Conditional on any OpenAI confirmation)
10
1kṀ968Dec 31
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This market resolves YES if OpenAI officially confirms that their O3 model uses the same base pretrained model as O1, and NO if they confirm it uses a different base model (including unannounced models such as the rumoured "GPT5/Orion" model).
Different base models are defined as (gpt-3.5-turbo, gpt-4o, gpt-4-turbo, gpt-4, <gpt-5/orion>)
Different revisions of the same model will not count (i.e. gpt-4o-2024-11-20
vs. gpt-4o-2024-08-06).
If no confirmation from OpenAI either way is made by December 31st 2025, the question resolves N/A.
Resolution will be based on official OpenAI blog posts, documentation, or public statements (including from social media like X) from known OpenAI employees.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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