This market resolves YES if OpenAI officially confirms that their O3 model uses the same base pretrained model as O1, and NO if they confirm it uses a different base model (including unannounced models such as the rumoured "GPT5/Orion" model).

Different base models are defined as (gpt-3.5-turbo, gpt-4o, gpt-4-turbo, gpt-4, <gpt-5/orion>)

Different revisions of the same model will not count (i.e. gpt-4o-2024-11-20

vs. gpt-4o-2024-08-06).

If no confirmation from OpenAI either way is made by December 31st 2025, the question resolves N/A.

Resolution will be based on official OpenAI blog posts, documentation, or public statements (including from social media like X) from known OpenAI employees.