
Will OpenAI refer to o3 as AGI?
15
Ṁ100Ṁ1.4kDec 29
1%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Some are saying “it’s over.”
Will OpenAI or Sam Altman claim that AGI has been achieved, in reference specifically to their o3 model?
Some will say “it’s not quite AGI” or “AGI is hard to define.” This market is only to determine whether the company or ceo will overtly make the claim, specifically about o3.
Resolves ‘yes’ if any official representative says that o3 is AGI, or that it in any way represents achieving AGI as a company. Resolves ‘no’ if the question is punted, if Altman specifically denies that it’s AGI, or another future or past model eventually is named as the first AGI.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
71% chance
Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?
83% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
31% chance
Will OpenAI "merge and assist" before building AGI? (closes 2030)
14% chance
Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?
48% chance
At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2024?
10% chance
Will OpenAI abandon the goal of building AGI before 2030?
13% chance
@iruletheworlmo (user on X) recently claimed that openai has achieved AGI
do you agree with this claim?
8% chance
Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?
22% chance