MANIFOLD
On how many requests in Altman's 23rd Dec twitter post will OpenAI deliver?
9
Ṁ585Ṁ1k
resolved Jan 6
100%44%
6
1.1%
1
1.1%
2
3%
3
1.3%
4
3%
5
25%
7
14%
8
3%
9
1.3%
10
1.3%
11
1.1%
12
1.1%
0

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1738673279085457661

Sam Altman asked the community what they wish OpenAI to deliver on in the next year. These were the most popular requests:

  1. AGI

  2. GPT-5

  3. better voice mode

  4. higher rate limits

  5. better GPTs

  6. better reasoning

  7. control over degree of wokeness/behavior

  8. video

  9. personalization

  10. better browsing

  11. 'sign in with openai'

  12. open source

The chosen answer will be the amount of things from the above list that OpenAI delivers on in 2024. The criteria will be enforced loosely, e.g. to get the "open source" marked as "yes", they just have to release some new open source product (not necessarily a SOTA model).

Resolved to 6 due to:

AGI - Not achieved as very few people consider the best model (o3) AGI

GPT5 - not released

better voice mode - gpt4o (1)

higher rate limits - increased several times throughout the year (2)

better GPTs - They didn't seem to update them at all

better reasoning - o1, o3 (3)

control over degree of wokeness - Nothing was really done about it. They did release the model spec, but that just defines how the models should behave, not really give users any additional control that wasn't there before
video - sora (4)

personalization - memory within chatgpt (5)

better browsing - chatGPT search (6)
sign in with openai - nothing of the sort was done
open source - No open source models were released

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ87
2Ṁ87
3Ṁ80
4Ṁ44
5Ṁ8
Sort by:

4, 5, and 9 on that list I'd argue were released yesterday, with Sunshine and the Team account tier

@JoeandSeth Higher rate limit probably yes due to team accounts. And, when long term memory comes, so does personalization (but I don't think it's public yet, nor officially announced).

I'm not sure it there are better GPTs though. All we got is the GPT store, with ways to discover the GPTs that perform the same as they did last year, no?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy