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MANIFOLD
What will happen related to the Hantavirus in 2026?
24
Ṁ875Ṁ3k
Dec 31
26%
A human-to-human transmission event in the US is confirmed by the CDC
16%
A specific Hantavirus strain is classified as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern
16%
A vaccine for Hantavirus enters Phase 3 clinical trials
9%
At least 1,000 cases are detected
7%
At least 5,000 cases are detected
7%
The mortality rate of a Hantavirus outbreak exceeds 20% in a single country
5%
At least 1,000 deaths are reported
4%
An effective antiviral treatment for Hantavirus is approved by the FDA
4%
U.S. schools shift to distance learning
3%
At least 10,000 cases are detected
3%
At least 5,000 deaths are reported
3%
A major sports league shuts down its operations
2%
Hantavirus is declared a pandemic by the WHO
1.3%
At least 10,000 deaths are reported
1%
At least 100,000 cases are reported

Market context
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Health
Pandemic
Hantavirus
COVID
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There are many hantaviruses. Does "the Hantavirus" refer to the specific Andes virus strain that caused the MV Hondis outbreak or does any member of the Orthohantavirus genus (or even the whole Hantaviridae family) count?

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 24% order

@AIBear This matters because fpr the Hantaan virus alone "9,000–12,000 cases occur each year in China" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantaan_virus) and there is an approved vaccine and few others in the pipeline for some hantaviruses other than the Andes virus.

@AIBear @GuyCohen very important clarification please, the Andes variant mortality rate is high but incidence is very low.

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