Will Tucker Carlson ever be elected President?
Will Tucker Carlson ever be elected President?
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predictedNO 2y
@jacksonpolack he's not young, not a politician, hasn't even announced that he wants to run, and a lot of people want to be president. Also very unlikely that he will challenge Trump, so has to wait until Trump dies
predictedNO 2y
@egroj if you see the market for will he run by 2032 is at 19%, I don't expect much change for any date after (probably it will get lower afterwards, he's more likely to be less famous once he gets older among people that haven't even been born yet). If he runs he has to win nomination (less than 50%) and then win the general election (about 50%). So less than 4% makes sense to me
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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