Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before GPT-5? | Manifold

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before GPT-5?

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61

Ṁ7940

2026

19%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

including tests

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https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-nuclear-test-icbm-ukraine-russia-a39a36f4ff000037f96116fd6f5633fb

South Korean military says North Korea appears poised to conduct nuclear and ICBM tests

South Korea’s military intelligence agency says North Korea has likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and appears to be preparing to test a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States.

bought Ṁ30 NO

AI art for this market did an interesting interpretation of "mushroom cloud"

We need to determine if this only counts a model named exactly GPT-5 or not.

predictedNO

Hell of a release party.

By "detonating" Gpt-5, is that a dramatic version of "releasing"?

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