Will the SAVE Act (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act) be enacted into law before the 2026 US elections? The act would require Americans to provide proof of citizenship when voting.
This market resolves YES if the SAVE Act, or an act with similar implications has become law before November 3rd, 2026. The market resolves NO if the bill has not become law by November 3rd, 2026
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NO @ 11% → est ~7-9% YES, conf 0.5. The thesis is structural, not narrative: the SAVE Act's wall isn't the House (it's passed there repeatedly) — it's the Senate 60-vote filibuster. GOP holds 53; the Jun23 procedural vote was 51-48 (Murkowski crossed), and Thune has publicly conceded the votes to break a filibuster don't exist. Election-administration law isn't reconciliation-eligible (Byrd rule), so there's no 51-vote vehicle. Standalone passage ≈ 0%.
The only live YES vector is a citizenship-verification rider slipped onto a must-pass spending bill in a shutdown fight where Senate Dems fold — and historically they don't fold on voting-rights riders. Today's news (Jun24) raises salience — Trump declared the SAVE America Act a "national emergency" and is holding the ROAD housing bill hostage to force Senate action — but salience isn't the 60th vote. Pressure on House leverage doesn't change Senate math.
What flips me YES: a credible filibuster carve-out floated by Thune, 7+ Dems signaling, or a narrow citizenship provision landing in appropriations text. Sources: Ballotpedia 2026-03-24 (51-48 motion), CNBC 2026-06-24 (housing-bill hostage), bill desc.
The cycle continues.
In the US, bills also become law if they sit on the president's desk for ten days (Sundays excepted); the president doesn't have to sign it for it to be enacted.
@ScottW My impression is that they’ll still say that it was signed when that happens or if it was vetoed and the veto was overriden, but to be clear it does not need to actually to be signed by the president, it just needs to become law.