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Will a deepfake video cause a major political controversy involving a head of state by 2026?
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Jan 2
67%
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Resolves Yes if at least two of these things happen related to a deepfake video of a head of state:

  1. Extensive media coverage

  2. A significant impact on diplomatic relations (public statement from foreign state)

  3. Public protests

  4. Official government investigations

  5. Public statement from the head of state or their government addressing the video.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

Trump's deepfake of Obama being arrested sounds like it meets points 1 and 5. It had major media coverage and Trump's social media posts are considered public statements.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/21/us/politics/trump-fake-video-obama-arrest.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVe_fWvhQcs

@Panfilo On the one hand, Obama is a former head of state, rather than a head of state. But on the other hand, Trump appears in the video next to Obama.

@JimHays Which is definitely enough for 5, and coverage from NYT-level publications is enough for 1.

Would what happened in Slovakia or with the leader of the opposition in the UK count had it been video?

So if it is a head of government like Justin Trudeau or Rishi Sunak this doesn't count?

@BrunoParga Any head of state counts

@GabeGarboden So if it is a head of government like Justin Trudeau or Rishi Sunak this doesn't count?

They are not heads of state, that's my point

@BrunoParga Who ever the highest ranking person is

@GabeGarboden how do you determine that? Do you consider King Charles III, the head of both these states, as higher-ranking than the Prime Ministers?

You need to address the fact that some countries have a different head of state and government, and the easiest way to do so is just to declare that either counts.

@BrunoParga I don’t need to do anything.

You’re free to bet or not based on if you think it’s clear

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