Mangione was technically sophisticated and clearly familiar with AI. His plan combined a mix of careful, well-thought-out plans with oddly amateur mistakes. This pattern is often indicative of language model use in, e.g., inexperienced coders.

The market will resolve as yes if there are credible news reports that language models played a substantial role in planning the assassination. It will resolve as no if no such report has been made by the end of December 2025.