Will any country forbid the ownership of AI Agents recognized as legal persons by 2030?
Will any country forbid the ownership of AI Agents recognized as legal persons by 2030?
18
121Ṁ4222030
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Context
The market is about any country will enact laws that forbid the ownership of AI agents recognized as legal persons, akin to how natural persons cannot be owned.
Resolution Criteria
The prediction will resolve as YES if any UN-recognized country enacts a law or regulation that explicitly forbids the ownership of some type AI agents that have legal personhood status by the end of 2030. The resolution will require official documentation or credible reporting of such a law or regulation.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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