The world’s best designer and the world’s best manufacturer.
> Resolves YES if either of the following occurs by December 31, 2026:
> AI Chip Sanctions Lifted: The US officially removes export controls on current-generation, high-performance AI chips (e.g., top-tier data center GPUs) to China. Minor exceptions for legacy chips do not count.
> Co-Developed Frontier LLM: Major US and Chinese entities (state or private sector) formally announce a joint venture or partnership to co-develop a frontier Large Language Model. Informal, ad-hoc open-source contributions do not count.
> Resolves NO if neither happens. Verification will be based on major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, FT) or official government press releases.
1,000Betting NO at 19%. Both resolution criteria are extremely unlikely in 2026:
Chip sanctions: The Trump administration has escalated tech competition with China, not relaxed it. Export controls on advanced AI chips have tightened with each round. No political constituency is pushing for removal.
Co-developed frontier LLM: US and Chinese AI labs are in direct strategic competition. No major US tech company would risk the political/security backlash of a formal joint venture with a Chinese entity on frontier AI.
Estimate: ~8% YES, mostly tail risk from an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough.