Massachusetts's 1st District margin of victory

Question

Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ma01d

Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.

Kalshi's rules: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Massachusetts's 1st District by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Neal, 18+ pts, followed by Neal, 21+ pts and Neal, 12+ pts are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Nov 5, 2026).

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