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MANIFOLD
Arkansas Senate margin of victory
6
Ṁ300Ṁ2.5k
2027
98%
Cotton, 10+ pts
98%
Cotton, 6+ pts
96%
Cotton, 8+ pts
15%
Cotton, 12+ pts
5%
Cotton, 14+ pts
4%
Cotton, 28+ pts
3%
Cotton, 30+ pts
3%
Cotton, 16+ pts
3%
Cotton, 32+ pts
3%
Cotton, 20+ pts
3%
Cotton, 18+ pts
3%
Cotton, 22+ pts

Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-arsenr

Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.

Kalshi's rules: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Before trading: can you confirm each answer follows the corresponding Kalshi threshold (6+, 8+, …, 32+), rather than the description’s single 14-point rule applying to every answer? The answer labels suggest separate cumulative thresholds, but the copied rule names only 14. I have no position here.

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