
Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?
15
150Ṁ5812026
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Also includes methods inspired by activation steering, as long as they don't use any gradient descent step.
Only includes announcements about main chat assistants (e.g. Claude, ChatGPT, Bard, ...) of a major AI lab (OpenAI, Google Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta, Inflection or Mistral).
Does not include to fine-tuning API endpoints.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
25% chance
Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?
35% chance
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
7% chance
Will chatbots/AI be powerful enough to make me unsad by EOY2025?
37% chance
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?
89% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
4% chance
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?
7% chance
Who will have the most popular AI assistant at the end of 2025? (judged by active users)
Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
19% chance
Before 2026, will you be able to buy ads in a mainstream AI assistant?
12% chance