How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
17
Ṁ18kṀ40k2027
97%
>= 100
96%
>= 200
95%
>= 300
95%
>= 500
60%
>= 800
16%
>= 1300
10%
>= 2100
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I haven't looked very hard, but I don't see 2025 or 2026 YTD numbers. It appears to have been 977 in 2024.
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