Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036?
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IE not spending the normal time in office for any reason including resignation, illness, change in the law, or any other reason, based on the laws as of 2023
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Does a temporary leave based on illness under the 25th amendment count (e.g. when President George W. Bush underwent a colonoscopy in 2002 and 2007)?
predictedYES 1y
@DanielParker I believe that's a pretty regular iccurance and is a temporary absence rather than a removal. I've heard similar things often happen to cabinet level posts, and would not be described as being removed from office.
The claim is about a term ending early, with no plans to resume.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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