CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out

MANIFOLD

Ṁ4.8kṀ15k

2033

98.8%

Bob Iger at Disney

30%

Tim Cook at Apple

Masayoshi Son at SoftBank

Sundar Pichai at Google

Andrew Wilson at Electronic Arts

Elon Musk at Tesla

C. C. Wei at TSMC

Andy Jassy at Amazon

Shantanu Narayen at Adobe

David Solomon at Goldman Sachs

Mary Barra at General Motors

Dario Amodei at Anthropic

Doug McMillon at Walmart

Ma Huateng at Tencent

Jensen Huang at Nvidia

Mark Zuckerberg at Meta

Resolved

YES

Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway

Resolved

N/A

Herbert Diess at Volkswagen

The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.

Out means not CEO anymore. That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc.

If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.

If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.

If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.

If the company has no CEO, they must at least still be the clear single solo leader.

Part of the 2023 CEO Tontine Markets:

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-one-of-these-19-c

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw-66fee6b25cc1

Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If three CEOs have not left their positions by the market's close date, the close date will be extended. The market will continue until the resolution condition is met.

Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If three CEOs have not left their positions by the market's close date, the close date will be extended. The market will continue until the resolution condition is met.

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bought Ṁ600 YES

@creator @traders Iger and Buffet are Yes

@PaperBoy The reporting I read says Iger leaves in March, but yes.

bought Ṁ20 YES

Tim Cook possibly on his way out: https://www.techpowerup.com/341644/apple-weighs-john-ternus-as-potential-successor-to-ceo-tim-cook

This feels like the kind of market that tracks a lot of factors into one number. Stuff like "will this company have a scandal soon", "will their business be in jeopardy", etc., and then also more boring stuff like "how is this person's health".