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MANIFOLD
CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out
52
Ṁ4.8kṀ31k
resolved May 1
Resolved
YES
Tim Cook at Apple
Resolved
YES
Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway
Resolved
YES
Bob Iger at Disney
Resolved
N/A
Herbert Diess at Volkswagen
Resolved
NO
Mark Zuckerberg at Meta
Resolved
NO
Andy Jassy at Amazon
Resolved
NO
Sundar Pichai at Google
Resolved
NO
Doug McMillon at Walmart
Resolved
NO
Dario Amodei at Anthropic
Resolved
NO
Andrew Wilson at Electronic Arts
Resolved
NO
Mary Barra at General Motors
Resolved
NO
David Solomon at Goldman Sachs
Resolved
NO
Jensen Huang at Nvidia
Resolved
NO
C. C. Wei at TSMC
Resolved
NO
Ma Huateng at Tencent
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk at Tesla
Resolved
NO
Shantanu Narayen at Adobe
Resolved
NO
Masayoshi Son at SoftBank

The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.

Out means not CEO anymore. That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc.

If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.

If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.

If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.

If the company has no CEO, they must at least still be the clear single solo leader.

Part of the 2023 CEO Tontine Markets:

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-one-of-these-19-c

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw-66fee6b25cc1

  • Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If three CEOs have not left their positions by the market's close date, the close date will be extended. The market will continue until the resolution condition is met.

  • Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If three CEOs have not left their positions by the market's close date, the close date will be extended. The market will continue until the resolution condition is met.

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@Stralor I believe Tim Cook is still CEO of Apple until September 1st.

@SIMOROBO meh. let's revisit and reresolve if someone else drops in the interim then

@Stralor the early resolution favors my bets, so I suppose I don't mind. But 4 months is a long time.

bought Ṁ600 YES

@creator @traders Iger and Buffet are Yes

@PaperBoy The reporting I read says Iger leaves in March, but yes.

@mods can this resolve yes

This feels like the kind of market that tracks a lot of factors into one number. Stuff like "will this company have a scandal soon", "will their business be in jeopardy", etc., and then also more boring stuff like "how is this person's health".

I feel like this is an interesting market to get notifications for.

The total is 468, @traders not too bad for day one, but you can go farther

@Ernie is the sort order by market cap or something? Do you have any opinion on changing the default sort to either High% or A-Z?

@Ernie What happens if it gets to the close date without three CEOs leaving?

@BoltonBailey it'll be extended. Tontines keep going until they resolve

@Eliza set to highest, thanks for pointing that out

@BoltonBailey making it later now