MANIFOLD
Will Eharding find a historian to write a book with by the end of 2025?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ329
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

I explained a bunch of my theories on this site in 2022 and haven't renounced them; I need at least one historian to write a book with (i.e., an Egyptologist and a Sinologist). You are welcome to make suggestions in the comments.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ24
2Ṁ21
3Ṁ13
4Ṁ7
5Ṁ5

People are also trading

If Alex Zhu were to get qEEG, would his z-score for Fz low-beta power be higher than his z-score for Fz theta power?
50% chance
Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?
59% chance
📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?
79% chance
Will someone write the book "Paul Christiano and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
51% chance
Will Joe Biden publish an autobiography by the end of 2030?
43% chance
Will someone write the book "Sam Altman and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
45% chance
Will someone write the book "Elon Musk and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
41% chance
Will someone write the book "Jose Luis Ricon and Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
50% chance
Will a top 2 Tech Leader Biographer write a book about Sam Altman before mid 2029
62% chance
Will we have bios of >20 of the Thiel Fellows by EOY2050?
59% chance
Sort by:

Can you make explicit and link to where you have explained your theories?

@Quroe +1 @EnopoletusHarding

@Quroe but I think it might be this https://againstjebelallawz.wordpress.com

@notrealDonaldTrump It's actually my Substack.

https://eharding.substack.com/

People are also trading

If Alex Zhu were to get qEEG, would his z-score for Fz low-beta power be higher than his z-score for Fz theta power?
50% chance
Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?
59% chance
📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?
79% chance
Will someone write the book "Paul Christiano and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
51% chance
Will Joe Biden publish an autobiography by the end of 2030?
43% chance
Will someone write the book "Sam Altman and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
45% chance
Will someone write the book "Elon Musk and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
41% chance
Will someone write the book "Jose Luis Ricon and Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
50% chance
Will a top 2 Tech Leader Biographer write a book about Sam Altman before mid 2029
62% chance
Will we have bios of >20 of the Thiel Fellows by EOY2050?
59% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy