MANIFOLD
How many counties will Trump win in 2024?
1
แน€1kแน€150
resolved Dec 21
100%15%
Between 2650 and 2700
15%
Between 2450 and 2500
15%
Between 2500 and 2550
15%
Between 2550 and 2600
15%
Between 2600 and 2650
15%
Between 2700 and 2750
9%
Between 2750 and 2800

For comparison, Trump won 2622 counties in 2016 and 2574 counties in 2020. Mitt Romney won 2420.


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You're double-counting (or not counting) the boundary numbers. And there's no "Other" so people have to bet treating the possibility of <2450 as 0% likely

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